New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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New York City FC have lost their last two; New York Red Bulls have lost four of their last six. The momentum is with the hosts going into this MLS tie.
N. Fernández Mercau has been New York City FC's spearhead, with 14 goals and 3 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 1.52 shots on target per game. J. Hall has been New York Red Bulls's main threat, with 9 goals and 3 assists in 22 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game.
Both sets of fans can dream here: this is two in-form sides on a collision course. New York City FC come in on a L-L-D-W-W run, New York Red Bulls have gone L-D-L-L-W-L, and neither will fear the other. When form meets form like this, something has to give, and whichever way it breaks, it should be a proper occasion. New York City FC's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for New York Red Bulls: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.6 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New York City FC create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. New York Red Bulls create 1.2 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. New York Red Bulls's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.6 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
New York City FC average 1.4 goals per game and New York Red Bulls manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.8. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | New York Red Bulls Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.