01The read
Something Has to Give: Mjallby AIF's Home Run Meets Djurgardens IF's Travel Form
Mjallby AIF 30%, the draw 26%, Djurgardens IF 42%. That's the shape of this one.
Mjallby AIF (1st, 75 pts) host Djurgardens IF (5th, 49 pts) in the Allsvenskan. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Mjallby AIF have won 11 of 15 at home (73%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
✈
Strong Travellers
Djurgardens IF win 46% of their away games (W7 from 15). Dangerous visitors
🧤
Defensive Wall
Mjallby AIF keep clean sheets in 47% of games. One of the tightest defences around
🔥
Chances Flowing
Mjallby AIF creating chances worth 2.5 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
📉
Cold Run
Djurgardens IF have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 62% of Mjallby AIF's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Mjallby AIF will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D4 L0 at home). Djurgardens IF's away record reads W7 D3 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Season-long, Mjallby AIF average 2.5 points per game compared to Djurgardens IF's 1.6. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. The gap in chance quality is clear: Mjallby AIF come out at +0.9 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.5. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. Mjallby AIF have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.5 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.9. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Mjallby AIF create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 0.9), leaving them +0.9 a game on the balance. Djurgardens IF create 1.7 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Mjallby AIF. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Mjallby AIF are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.5 a game over the last 5 vs 1.9 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mjallby AIF are scoring 1.9 a game (1.7 of those at home) and Djurgardens IF manage 1.7 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Two or more goals at @1.25 is a steadier alternative for accas.
▸ Team news & context
Matches involving Mjallby AIF always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Djurgardens IF will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
Promotion is on the line. Mjallby AIF (1st) and Djurgardens IF (5th) are both in the playoff places. This could determine who goes up.
Mjallby AIF are in great shape right now, banging in 1.9 a game and only letting in 0.6. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (11%).
First Half Result
-
Mjallby AIF HT
2.88
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Djurgardens IF HT
3.20
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Mjallby AIF · xG
For: 1.85/g
Against: 0.94/g
📊 Djurgardens IF · xG
For: 1.67/g
Against: 1.19/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 1.23/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Mjallby AIF Win |
@2.40
|
29.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.25
|
26.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Djurgardens IF Win |
@2.70
|
42.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.65
|
52.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.15
|
47.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
53.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
46.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Team Stats
Mjallby AIF
Position
1
Played
30
Record
23W-6D-1L
Goals F/A
57/18
Avg Goals Scored
1.90
Points
75
Overall Form
WLLDL
Home Form
WLDLL
Home Record
11W-4D-0L
Djurgardens IF
Position
5
Played
30
Record
13W-10D-7L
Goals F/A
52/32
Avg Goals Scored
1.70
Points
49
Overall Form
LLWWD
Away Form
LWDWW
Away Record
7W-3D-5L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.1%
2-0
7.9%
0-0
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
5.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
85%
@1.20
William Hill
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Mjallby AIF over 0.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Under 13.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Mjallby AIF under 2 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Djurgardens IF over 0.5 goals
80%
@1.30
Bet365
-
Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF (double chance)
79%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Mjallby AIF over 3.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
76%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
75%
@1.35
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
75%
@1.36
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →