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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 48.4% | 58.1% | 10 pts under |
| Mansfield Town Win | 42.6% | 48.8% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49.8% | 52.9% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Mansfield Town host Doncaster.
Mansfield Town take on Doncaster in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Mansfield Town will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Doncaster travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Mansfield Town at 43%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Mansfield Town are scoring 1.9 a game (1.9 of those at home) and Doncaster manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 57% of Mansfield Town's home games and 43% of Doncaster's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Mansfield Town are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Doncaster, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mansfield Town Win | @2.10 | 42.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 28.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Doncaster Win | @3.30 | 28.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 51.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 50.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.55 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Mansfield Town the favourite with a 42.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Mansfield Town @ 2.10, Draw @ 3.20, Doncaster @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Mansfield Town vs Doncaster kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.4% probability.
Our top prediction is Mansfield Town to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.