Get the model's verified verdict on Grêmio (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Grêmio know what's at stake, and so do Sao Paulo.
Grêmio take on Sao Paulo in the Brasileirão Série A. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Grêmio will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sao Paulo travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Grêmio average 0.7 goals per game and Sao Paulo manage 1.1. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 47% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Grêmio Win | @2.38 | 32.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 26.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sao Paulo Win | @2.90 | 39.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 47.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.67 | 52.7% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sao Paulo the favourite with a 39.3% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Grêmio @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.00, Sao Paulo @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Grêmio vs Sao Paulo kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.