Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Predictions & Odds
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Bahia and Vasco DA Gama meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Bahia (7th, 60 pts) host Vasco DA Gama (14th, 45 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Bahia will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Vasco DA Gama travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Bahia's home record this season is formidable. W14 D3 L2 from 19, scoring 1.7 goals per game at home. Vasco DA Gama, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W5 D2 L12 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Bahia look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.3 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. Bahia have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.8. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bahia create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Vasco DA Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bahia. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bahia should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.3 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. Bahia are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.2 a game over the last 5 vs 1.8 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Bahia average 1.3 goals per game and Vasco DA Gama manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bahia Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Vasco DA Gama Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.