Cruzeiro vs Mirassol Predictions & Odds
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A test of nerve as much as quality when Cruzeiro welcome Mirassol.
There's barely anything between these two. Cruzeiro (3rd, 70 pts) and Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Brasileirão Série A table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cruzeiro will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Mirassol travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Cruzeiro supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. unbeaten in 5. That W-D-W-D-W run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for Mirassol lately (W-L-W-L-D), recent form reads W-L-W-L-D. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and Mirassol are right back in it. On paper it's Cruzeiro's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways. A concern for Mirassol: they're giving up chances worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.2 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Cruzeiro create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Mirassol create 1.5 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Mirassol's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.2 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Cruzeiro average 1.4 goals per game and Mirassol manage 1.7. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Matches involving Cruzeiro always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Mirassol will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
Both sides are in the chasing pack. Cruzeiro (3rd) and Mirassol (4th) are still in touch with the playoff places, and a result here matters.
Cruzeiro do it the hard way: only 1.4 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cruzeiro Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Cruzeiro vs Mirassol kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.