Get the model's verified verdict on France (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| France Win | 48.1% | 54.3% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66.5% | 71.4% | 5 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 69.1% | 72.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Three points on the line and a story to write. France host England.
France take on England in the FIFA World Cup. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
Kylian Mbappé has been France's spearhead, with 25 goals and 5 assists in 31 appearances, averaging 2.03 shots on target per game. H. Kane has been England's main threat, with 36 goals and 5 assists in 31 appearances, averaging 2.16 shots on target per game.
A razor-thin margin: France at 48%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.44. Model probability 69% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. France average 2.3 per game and England chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals look likely here. France average 2.3 per game (2.3 at home) and England chip in with 2.0 (2.0 away). Defensively, France concede 0.6 at home and England leak 1.1 on the road. We make it 67% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. France score in 86% of their games and England in 86%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
France are in great shape right now, banging in 2.3 a game and only letting in 0.6. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. England have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.1 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | France Win | @1.85 | 48.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | England Win | @3.70 | 27.3% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 69.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.62 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 66.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.80 | 33.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.75 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes France the favourite with a 48.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: France @ 1.85, Draw @ 3.60, England @ 3.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
France vs England kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 22:00 in the FIFA World Cup.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 69.1% probability.
Our top prediction is France to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.
