Bet Builder · Fixture Tip

France vs England Bet Builder Tip

Saturday 18 July 2026, 22:00 · FIFA World Cup

⚙️ A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

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Our Model's Picks

Tracked · part of our verified record

Our 3-Leg Bet Builder

Combined probability: 27.2% · Combined fair odds: 3.68

  • France to win

    Probability: 45.0% · Fair odds: 2.22

    API-Football model rates this 45% (advice: Double chance : France or draw).

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    Probability: 87.5% · Fair odds: 1.14

    API-Football goals model: expected goals 2.50 + 2.50 → Over 2.5 Goals at 88%.

  • Both Teams to Score

    Probability: 69.1% · Fair odds: 1.45

    Based on odds.

Our model rates this 3-leg combination at 27.2% combined, blending the strongest match-result and goals markets for France vs England. Combined probability assumes the legs are independent, in reality the model-result and goals legs are mildly correlated, so treat the combined as a guide rather than a precise figure. We log every prediction we publish.

Alternative Picks

  • Double Chance, 78.3% @1.25
  • Double Chance, 77.5% @1.27
  • Double Chance, 53.9% @1.89

More to Build With

Informational, not tracked, build your own bet

Player Form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • Kylian Mbappé France
    Shots on Target 1+ 94%

    Kylian Mbappé averages 2.03 SoT/match (31 apps) [WC form: 3.05/90 over 3 games (266 min), 39% weight → 2.42], home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 2.80, P(1+)=94% P(2+)=77%

  • H. Kane England
    Shots on Target 1+ 83%

    H. Kane averages 2.16 SoT/match (31 apps) [WC form: 1.00/90 over 1 games (90 min), 18% weight → 1.96], away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.76, P(1+)=83% P(2+)=53%

  • Kylian Mbappé France
    Shots on Target 2+ 77%

    Kylian Mbappé averages 2.03 SoT/match (31 apps) [WC form: 3.05/90 over 3 games (266 min), 39% weight → 2.42], home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 2.80, P(1+)=94% P(2+)=77%

  • I. Toney England
    Shots on Target 1+ 74%

    I. Toney averages 1.50 SoT/match (32 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.35, P(1+)=74% P(2+)=39%

  • O. Watkins England
    Shots on Target 1+ 60%

    O. Watkins averages 1.03 SoT/match (37 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 0.92, P(1+)=60% P(2+)=24%

  • Kylian Mbappé France
    Anytime Scorer 56%

    Kylian Mbappé on 0.81 goals/match (31 apps) [WC form: 1.35/90 over 3 games (266 min), 39% weight → 1.02], home vs opp conceding 0.30 goals/game → lambda 0.82, P(anytime scorer)=56%

  • M. Rogers England
    Shots on Target 1+ 54%

    M. Rogers averages 0.86 SoT/match (37 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 0.78, P(1+)=54% P(2+)=18%

  • H. Kane England
    Shots on Target 2+ 53%

    H. Kane averages 2.16 SoT/match (31 apps) [WC form: 1.00/90 over 1 games (90 min), 18% weight → 1.96], away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.76, P(1+)=83% P(2+)=53%

  • I. Toney England
    Anytime Scorer 47%

    I. Toney on 0.97 goals/match (32 apps), away vs opp conceding 0.30 goals/game → lambda 0.64, P(anytime scorer)=47%

  • H. Kane England
    Anytime Scorer 47%

    H. Kane on 1.16 goals/match (31 apps) [WC form: 0.00/90 over 1 games (90 min), 18% weight → 0.96], away vs opp conceding 0.30 goals/game → lambda 0.63, P(anytime scorer)=47%

  • T. Hernández France
    Shots on Target 1+ 43%

    T. Hernández averages 0.52 SoT/match (31 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 0.57, P(1+)=43% P(2+)=11%

  • I. Toney England
    Shots on Target 2+ 39%

    I. Toney averages 1.50 SoT/match (32 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game → lambda 1.35, P(1+)=74% P(2+)=39%

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

How is this built?

This bet builder is auto-generated by our football model across hundreds of weekly picks. Every leg is a team market (match result, goals, BTTS), the same markets in our verified record. Each leg shows the model's probability alongside the fair odds, so you can see exactly where we think the edge is. We don't cherry-pick wins; we log every prediction we publish, win or lose. Player markets shown above are informational only and never count toward that record.

View our full verified track record →  |  Full match preview →  |  World Cup 2026 hub →