The key duel: Argentina's attack against Spain's back line.
Spain take on Argentina in the FIFA World Cup. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
Lamine Yamal has been Spain's spearhead, with 16 goals and 11 assists in 28 appearances, averaging 1.32 shots on target per game. L. Messi has been Argentina's main threat, with 35 goals and 23 assists in 31 appearances, averaging 2.58 shots on target per game.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Spain at 0%, but the draw sits at 0%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key men
L
Lamine YamalSpain · Midfielder
16 goals · 11 assists in 28 apps
1.3 shots on target a game
L
L. MessiArgentina · Attacker
35 goals · 23 assists in 31 apps
2.6 shots on target a game
Key facts
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Defensive WallSpain keep clean sheets in 86% of games. One of the tightest defences around
▸ Form & goals
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Spain average 1.9 goals per game and Argentina manage 2.7. Combined that's just 4.6. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
▸ Team news & context
Spain are in great shape right now, banging in 1.9 a game and only letting in 0.1. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. Argentina have goals in them (2.7 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
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