Flamengo vs Vitoria Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Flamengo and Vitoria meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) are firmly in the top six and host a Vitoria side (15th, 45 pts) languishing in the bottom half. On paper, this looks comfortable.
Pedro has been Flamengo's spearhead, with 12 goals and 4 assists in 18 appearances, averaging 1.22 shots on target per game. Rene has been Vitoria's main threat, with 5 goals and 1 assists in 12 appearances, averaging 1.33 shots on target per game.
Flamengo's home record this season is formidable. W14 D5 L0 from 19, scoring 2.4 goals per game at home. Vitoria, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W2 D6 L11 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Flamengo create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +1.1 a game on the balance. Vitoria create 1.2 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Flamengo. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Flamengo average 2.1 goals per game and Vitoria manage 0.9. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Flamengo and Vitoria together create chances worth 3.3 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Flamengo are in great shape right now, banging in 2.1 a game and only letting in 0.7. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Vitoria Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Flamengo vs Vitoria kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.