Fiorentina vs Napoli Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Fiorentina (20th, 0 pts) host Napoli (10th, 3 pts) in the Serie A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Napoli are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Fiorentina (W0 D0 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Napoli have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Napoli average 1.5 points per game compared to Fiorentina's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Napoli are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.5 actual goals). They look due a few more. The gap in chance quality is clear: Napoli come out at +1.4 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Fiorentina create chances worth 1.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Napoli create 1.8 (giving up 0.4) for a balance of +1.4. On the quality of chances, Napoli look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Napoli are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.5. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Fiorentina average 0.5 goals per game and Napoli manage 1.5. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it 55% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Both teams score in 63% of Fiorentina's home games and 37% of Napoli's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Fiorentina need points desperately. Sitting 20th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
In the last 10 meetings: Fiorentina have won 2, Napoli 6, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 8 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina, Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli, Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina, Fiorentina 0-3 Napoli.
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (12%) and 0-3 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Fiorentina Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Napoli Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Napoli kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:30 in the Serie A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.8% probability.