Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Juárez Win | 51.1% | 59.9% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.9% | 61.7% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: FC Juárez's attack against Puebla's back line.
FC Juárez take on Puebla in the Liga MX. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. FC Juárez will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Puebla travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. FC Juárez edge it at 51% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 59% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Juárez Win | @1.73 | 51.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 25.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Puebla Win | @4.00 | 23.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 58.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.05 | 41.1% | William Hill |
Our model makes FC Juárez the favourite with a 51.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: FC Juárez @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.30, Puebla @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
FC Juárez vs Puebla kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our top prediction is FC Juárez to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.