Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey Win | 56.5% | 65.4% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65.4% | 69.4% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Monterrey know what's at stake — and so do Santos Laguna.
A Liga MX fixture between Monterrey and Santos Laguna. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Monterrey will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Santos Laguna travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards Monterrey at 57%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickMonterrey to win at @1.55. Model probability 57% vs implied 65% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The odds point towards goals. We make it 65% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Monterrey Win | @1.55 | 56.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 23.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Santos Laguna Win | @4.75 | 20.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 65.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.40 | 34.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Monterrey the favourite with a 56.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Monterrey @ 1.55, Draw @ 3.70, Santos Laguna @ 4.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Monterrey vs Santos Laguna kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.
Our top prediction is Monterrey to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.