Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Querétaro Win | 24.6% | 30.3% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.0% | 53.2% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Querétaro as América travel to face Querétaro.
Querétaro welcome América in the Liga MX. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Querétaro will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while América travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: América at 48%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 50% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Querétaro Win | @3.30 | 24.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | América Win | @1.95 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.75 | 50.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes América the favourite with a 47.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Querétaro @ 3.30, Draw @ 3.10, América @ 1.95. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Querétaro vs América kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our top prediction is América to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.