Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas Win | 35.0% | 45.5% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
The key duel: Pachuca's attack against Pumas's back line.
A Liga MX fixture between Pumas and Pachuca. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Pumas will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Pachuca travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Pachuca edge it at 38% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 55% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Pumas Win | @2.20 | 35.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Pachuca Win | @2.75 | 37.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 54.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.91 | 45.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Pachuca the favourite with a 37.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Pumas @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.10, Pachuca @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Pumas vs Pachuca kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 00:00 in the Liga MX.
Our top prediction is Pachuca to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.