Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Win | 40.3% | 47.2% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.9% | 61.7% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Guadalajara welcome Toluca.
Guadalajara welcome Toluca in the Liga MX. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Guadalajara will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toluca travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Guadalajara edge it at 40% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 59% for three or more.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Guadalajara Win | @2.20 | 40.3% | Paddy Power |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.0% | Paddy Power |
| Match Result | Toluca Win | @2.80 | 35.7% | Paddy Power |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 58.9% | LeoVegas |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.02 | 41.1% | LeoVegas |
Our model makes Guadalajara the favourite with a 40.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Guadalajara @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.50, Toluca @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Guadalajara vs Toluca kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.
Our top prediction is Guadalajara to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.