Get the model's verified verdict on Everton (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Everton have taken 7 points from their last five; Wolves have won four of their last six. The visitors bring the sharper form into this EFL Cup tie.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Everton create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Wolves create 1.1 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Everton average 1.9 goals per game and Wolves manage 2.7. Combined that's just 4.5. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Everton are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Wolves, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Wolves have goals in them (2.7 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Everton have won 2, Wolves 5, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Everton 1-1 Wolves, Wolves 2-0 Everton, Wolves 2-3 Everton.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Everton Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Wolves Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Everton vs Wolves kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.