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Form, fitness, fine margins. Derby and Lincoln meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Derby welcome Lincoln in the EFL Cup. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Derby will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Lincoln travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Goals look likely here. Derby average 1.6 per game (1.6 at home) and Lincoln chip in with 2.1 (2.1 away). Defensively, Derby concede 1.6 at home and Lincoln leak 1.0 on the road. We make it 58% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
Lincoln have goals in them (2.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Derby Win | @1.95 | 44.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 27.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lincoln Win | @3.30 | 28.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 53.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 46.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.12 | 41.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
The bookmakers make Derby the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Derby @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.75, Lincoln @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Derby vs Lincoln kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.