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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United Win | 30.9% | 43.5% | 13 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 45.2% | 54.3% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40.3% | 46.9% | 7 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
All eyes on Cambridge United as Wigan travel to face Cambridge United.
Cambridge United welcome Wigan in the League One. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cambridge United will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wigan travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Wigan edge it at 40% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our model spots value here: Wigan to win at @3.00 (our model: 40%, bookmakers imply: 33%). A 6% edge over the market.
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. Cambridge United at @2.38 (31%) and Wigan at @3.00 (40%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.00 (29%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 40%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.40 is the more conservative option.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cambridge United Win | @2.38 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 29.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wigan Win | @3.00 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 45.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.85 | 54.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.25 | 40.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.65 | 59.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.05 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.23 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Wigan the favourite with a 39.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Cambridge United @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.00, Wigan @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cambridge United vs Wigan kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.2% probability.
Our top prediction is Wigan to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.