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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool Win | 35.7% | 46.7% | 11 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.9% | 59.9% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.7% | 55.2% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Blackpool welcome Wycombe.
Blackpool take on Wycombe in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Blackpool will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wycombe travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Wycombe edge it at 37% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Blackpool are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Wycombe manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
Both teams score in 52% of Blackpool's home games and 57% of Wycombe's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Blackpool do it the hard way: only 1.5 a game up top, but a mean 0.3 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Wycombe have goals in them (2.3 per game) but their record at the back (2.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Blackpool Win | @2.45 | 35.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wycombe Win | @2.70 | 36.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.90 | 51.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.92 | 48.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.80 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Wycombe the favourite with a 36.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Blackpool @ 2.45, Draw @ 3.25, Wycombe @ 2.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Blackpool vs Wycombe kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.9% probability.
Our top prediction is Wycombe to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.