03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
49.0% |
58.8% |
10 pts under
|
| Atletico Madrid Win |
47.4% |
54.6% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
51.7% |
55.2% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 11.5 Match Corners
43% (model)
Corners: Atletico Madrid avg 4.2 for/5.2 against, Villarreal avg 5.8 for/7.0 against → expected 11.1 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
51% (model)
Cards: Atletico Madrid avg 2.5/game, Villarreal avg 2.3/game → expected 4.8 match cards
-
Over 20.5 Match Fouls
48% (model)
Fouls: Atletico Madrid avg 10.4/game, Villarreal avg 10.0/game → expected 20.4 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
49% (model)
Shots: Atletico Madrid avg 11.3/game, Villarreal avg 11.3/game → expected 22.6 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: Match Preview & Prediction
Atletico Madrid 47%, the draw 28%, Villarreal 25%. That's the shape of this one.
Atletico Madrid slight edge (47%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Atletico Madrid have lost three of their last five; Villarreal have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Atletico Madrid edge it at 47% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Villarreal's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Villarreal could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.9 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.6. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Villarreal come out at +0.5 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Atletico Madrid create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Villarreal create 1.6 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Villarreal look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Villarreal are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.9 goals vs chance quality of 1.6). Both runs could cool off at once. Atletico Madrid are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Atletico Madrid are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Villarreal manage 1.9 (1.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 52%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%. Two or more goals at @1.30 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 47% of Atletico Madrid's home games and 63% of Villarreal's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Villarreal have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Atletico Madrid but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.25 , which pays out if Atletico Madrid win or draw, covers 75% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 1-0 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Atletico Madrid HT
2.50
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
Villarreal HT
4.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Atletico Madrid · xG
For: 1.48/g
Against: 1.85/g
📊 Villarreal · xG
For: 1.64/g
Against: 1.17/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.46/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Atletico Madrid Win |
@1.85
|
47.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
27.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Villarreal Win |
@3.90
|
24.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.83
|
49.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
51.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
51.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.97
|
48.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.85
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal Team Stats
Atletico Madrid
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Villarreal CF
Position
3
Played
38
Record
22W-6D-10L
Goals F/A
72/46
Avg Goals Scored
1.89
Points
72
Overall Form
WLLDW
Away Form
LDD
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.0%
1-0
6.4%
2-0
4.0%
3-1
2.9%
3-2
2.5%
3-0
1.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Atletico Madrid or Draw (double chance)
85%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Atletico Madrid or Villarreal (double chance)
82%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals
82%
@1.25
Betano
-
Villarreal under 5.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
81%
@1.31
Betano
-
Atletico Madrid over 3.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Atletico Madrid under 7.5 corners
79%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.36
Unibet
-
Villarreal under 1.5 goals
77%
@1.34
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
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