03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Osasuna Win |
50.9% |
59.2% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
49.3% |
54.1% |
5 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
51.7% |
56.2% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 10.5 Match Corners
42% (model)
Corners: Osasuna avg 5.7 for/3.0 against, Levante avg 5.6 for/5.8 against → expected 10.0 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
42% (model)
Cards: Osasuna avg 1.7/game, Levante avg 2.6/game → expected 4.3 match cards
-
Over 24.5 Match Fouls
61% (model)
Fouls: Osasuna avg 13.7/game, Levante avg 12.4/game → expected 26.1 match fouls
-
Over 22.5 Match Shots
33% (model)
Shots: Osasuna avg 8.0/game, Levante avg 12.7/game → expected 20.7 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Red-Hot Levante Arrive as Osasuna Search for Answers
Osasuna 51%, the draw 24%, Levante 23%. That's the shape of this one.
Osasuna slight edge (51%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
A La Liga clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Osasuna (16th, 42 pts) and Levante (18th, 42 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Osasuna edge it at 51% but a draw (24%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🔥
Creative Force
Levante creating chances worth 2.0 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home
📉
Home Wobble
Osasuna arrive off 5 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
▸ Form & goals
The travelling Levante fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads L-W-W-W-L. That L-W-W-W-L away form is genuinely impressive. Osasuna have been wobbling (L-L-L-L-L) 5 losses in a row. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and Osasuna will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Osasuna create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Levante create 1.8 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Osasuna average 1.2 goals per game and Levante manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 74% of Osasuna's home games and 47% of Levante's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Levante travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Osasuna but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.22 , which pays out if Osasuna win or draw, covers 75% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%).
First Half Result
-
Osasuna HT
2.30
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
Levante HT
4.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Osasuna · xG
For: 1.32/g
Against: 1.06/g
📊 Levante · xG
For: 1.78/g
Against: 1.23/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Osasuna vs Levante Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Osasuna Win |
@1.80
|
50.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
23.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Levante Win |
@4.33
|
23.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.83
|
51.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
48.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
49.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.96
|
50.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Osasuna vs Levante Team Stats
CA Osasuna
Position
16
Played
38
Record
11W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
44/50
Avg Goals Scored
1.16
Points
42
Overall Form
LLLLL
Home Form
LLLW
Levante UD
Position
18
Played
38
Record
11W-9D-18L
Goals F/A
47/61
Avg Goals Scored
1.24
Points
42
Overall Form
LWWWL
Away Form
LWLD
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
6.7%
3-1
3.9%
3-0
3.1%
3-2
2.5%
4-1
1.4%
4-0
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
84%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Osasuna over 3.5 corners
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Osasuna or Levante (double chance)
83%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Osasuna under 8.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Osasuna under 2.5 goals
82%
@1.27
Betano
-
Levante under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Over 1.5 goals
79%
@1.32
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Under 2 second half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
Osasuna over 1 goals
77%
@1.31
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →