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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41.8% | 48.8% | 7 pts under |
| Athletic Bilbao Win | 56.9% | 63.7% | 7 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Athletic Bilbao arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
A La Liga fixture between Athletic Bilbao and Sevilla. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Athletic Bilbao will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sevilla travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards Athletic Bilbao at 57%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickAthletic Bilbao to win at @1.62. Model probability 57% vs implied 62%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Athletic Bilbao create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Sevilla create 0.8 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of -0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Athletic Bilbao average 0.0 goals per game and Sevilla manage 1.2. Combined that's just 1.2. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 53% of Athletic Bilbao's home games and 58% of Sevilla's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Athletic Bilbao do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (20%) and 2-0 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Athletic Bilbao Win | @1.62 | 56.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 24.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sevilla Win | @5.50 | 18.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 41.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.70 | 58.2% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Athletic Bilbao the favourite with a 56.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Athletic Bilbao @ 1.62, Draw @ 3.60, Sevilla @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Athletic Bilbao vs Sevilla kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 16:00 in the La Liga.
Our top prediction is Athletic Bilbao to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.