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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA Osasuna Win | 53.2% | 59.9% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.5% | 55.6% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
CA Osasuna know what's at stake, and so do Levante.
A La Liga clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. CA Osasuna (16th, 42 pts) and Levante (18th, 42 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. CA Osasuna will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Levante travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: CA Osasuna at just 53%. With the draw at 22%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for CA Osasuna, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The travelling Levante fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads L-W-W-W-L. That L-W-W-W-L away form is genuinely impressive. CA Osasuna have been wobbling (L-L-L-L-L) 5 losses in a row. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and CA Osasuna will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
CA Osasuna create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Levante create 1.7 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. CA Osasuna average 1.2 goals per game and Levante manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 51% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 74% of CA Osasuna's home games and 47% of Levante's away matches.
Levante travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 18th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | CA Osasuna Win | @1.70 | 53.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 22.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Levante Win | @4.60 | 22.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 50.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.91 | 49.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes CA Osasuna the favourite with a 53.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: CA Osasuna @ 1.70, Draw @ 3.75, Levante @ 4.60. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
CA Osasuna vs Levante kicks off on Monday 24 August 2026 at 18:30 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.7% probability.
Our top prediction is CA Osasuna to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.