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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 27.0% | 34.5% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 36.8% | 34.5% | 2 pts over |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Getafe host Real Racing Club de Santander.
Getafe welcome Real Racing Club de Santander in the La Liga. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Getafe will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Real Racing Club de Santander travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Getafe edge it at 49% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Getafe average 0.8 goals per game and Real Racing Club de Santander manage 0.0. Combined that's just 0.8. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Real Racing Club de Santander prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Getafe against this setup.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (17%) and 2-0 (4%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Getafe Win | @1.85 | 48.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @2.90 | 27.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Real Racing Club de Santander Win | @5.00 | 24.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.90 | 36.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.36 | 63.2% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Getafe the favourite with a 48.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Getafe @ 1.85, Draw @ 2.90, Real Racing Club de Santander @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Getafe vs Real Racing Club de Santander kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:30 in the La Liga.
Our top prediction is Getafe to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.