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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29.2% | 38.2% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 35.5% | 33.3% | 2 pts over |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Alavés know what's at stake, and so do Getafe.
Alavés (14th, 43 pts) host Getafe (7th, 51 pts) in the La Liga. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Alavés will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Getafe travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Alavés at 36%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Alavés average 1.2 goals per game and Getafe manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.0. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams score in 78% of Alavés's home games and 26% of Getafe's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Alavés Win | @2.40 | 35.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @2.80 | 29.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Getafe Win | @3.40 | 33.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @3.00 | 35.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.36 | 64.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Alavés the favourite with a 35.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Alavés @ 2.40, Draw @ 2.80, Getafe @ 3.40. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Alavés vs Getafe kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:30 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.9% probability.
Our top prediction is Alavés to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.