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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.4% | 49.5% | 7 pts under |
| Celta Vigo Win | 46.3% | 51.8% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Celta Vigo arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Celta Vigo welcome CA Osasuna in the La Liga. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Celta Vigo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while CA Osasuna travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Celta Vigo at just 46%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Celta Vigo, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The gap in chance quality is clear: CA Osasuna come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.4. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for CA Osasuna: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.1 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Celta Vigo create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. CA Osasuna create 1.3 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, CA Osasuna look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. CA Osasuna's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.1 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Celta Vigo average 1.2 goals per game and CA Osasuna manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 63% of Celta Vigo's home games and 37% of CA Osasuna's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Celta Vigo Win | @2.05 | 46.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | CA Osasuna Win | @3.70 | 26.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 42.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.70 | 57.6% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Celta Vigo the favourite with a 46.3% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Celta Vigo @ 2.05, Draw @ 3.25, CA Osasuna @ 3.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Celta Vigo vs CA Osasuna kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:30 in the La Liga.
Our top prediction is Celta Vigo to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.