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Al-Nassr 72%, the draw 14%, Al-Fateh 14%. That's the shape of this one.
Al-Nassr have won three of their last five; Al-Fateh have taken five points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Nassr to win at @1.10. Model probability 72% vs implied 91%. The market is 19pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Al-Nassr are scoring 2.4 a game (2.4 of those at home) and Al-Fateh manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 80%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Al-Nassr are all-out attack: 2.4 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Al-Fateh, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Nassr Win | @1.10 | 71.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @9.00 | 14.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Al-Fateh Win | @15.00 | 14.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.25 | 79.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @4.20 | 20.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.06 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @10.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @2.38 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.77 · £5 returns £13.83
Our model makes Al-Nassr the favourite with a 71.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Nassr @ 1.10, Draw @ 9.00, Al-Fateh @ 15.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 19:00 in the Saudi Pro League.