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The model makes Al-Nassr 72% favourites here. Abha Club carry the 13% upset.
Al-Nassr have won five straight; Abha Club are winless in their last four. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Nassr to win at @1.15. Model probability 72% vs implied 87%. The market is 15pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Al-Nassr average 2.7 goals per game and Abha Club manage 1.0. Combined that's just 3.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Al-Nassr are all-out attack: 2.7 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Abha Club, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Nassr Win | @1.15 | 72.4% | Grosvenor |
| Match Result | Draw | @7.00 | 14.4% | Grosvenor |
| Match Result | Abha Club Win | @12.50 | 13.2% | Grosvenor |
Our model makes Al-Nassr the favourite with a 72.4% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Nassr @ 1.15, Draw @ 7.00, Abha Club @ 12.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Nassr vs Abha Club kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 19:00 in the Saudi Pro League.