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Al-Ahli 66%, the draw 19%, Al-Riyadh 16%. That's the shape of this one.
Al-Ahli have lost their last two; Al-Riyadh have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Saudi Pro League tie.
Our PickAl-Ahli to win at @1.30. Model probability 66% vs implied 77%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Al-Ahli average 2.2 goals per game and Al-Riyadh manage 1.2. Combined that's just 3.4. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Al-Ahli are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Al-Riyadh, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Al-Ahli Win | @1.30 | 65.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.80 | 18.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Al-Riyadh Win | @6.50 | 15.6% | William Hill |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Al-Ahli the favourite with a 65.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Al-Ahli @ 1.30, Draw @ 4.80, Al-Riyadh @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Al-Ahli vs Al-Riyadh kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:00 in the Saudi Pro League.