Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

Saturday 10 October 2026, 15:00 Championship

Build this bet

1070 picks graded in public, misses included. The record

The model's read

Derby 27% Draw 27% Wrexham 44%

The read

The desk

Derby have lost their last two at home and sit 22nd, while Wrexham sit 14th with a draw and a win in their last two. The shape points at Wrexham not losing and at a game without much goal in it, with the team news still unconfirmed.

The model says

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The call on this game Over 1.5
The best price 1.33Bet365

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 1.33

Who is missing

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Team news · fetched, named, sourced
Derby

No absences found.

Wrexham

Thomason: thigh, out to 4 Nov · Cleworth: hamstring, out to 21 Nov · Broadhead: thigh strain, out to 5 Dec

Checked Wed 7 Oct, 06:25.

One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1

The research

Pro
Markets the desk would leave alone
KILLED
Derby or Draw 1.47

Derby are 22nd and lost their last two at home, with a last five of D L L L W. Wrexham sit 14th. The home side is not the safe side here: a home double chance needs Derby to avoid defeat, and their form has not done that consistently.

KILLED
Both teams to score - Yes 1.80

Derby have lost their last two at home and Wrexham have won one of their last five on the road. Nothing in the pack shows either side's scoring or conceding runs, so the evidence does not show both sides scoring in this fixture.

The research desk on this game:

“Derby at home is the trap; Wrexham or Draw and Under 2.5 are the reads, team news unverified.”

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1

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The model v the market

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Match modelBest priceImplied
Derby win 27% 2.75 36%
Draw 27% 3.30 30%
Wrexham win 44% 2.62 38%
Derby or draw 67% 1.47 68%
Wrexham or draw 69% 1.44 69%
Either side to win, no draw 1.36 74%
Over 2.5 goals 50% 2.00 50%
Both teams to score 53% 1.80 56%

Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.

The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.

Every priced market

20 markets
Derby over 3.5 corners Betano 1.21
Wrexham over 3.5 corners 1xBet 1.21
Under 2 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.22
Over 0.5 second half goals William Hill 1.25
Over 8.5 corners 1xBet 1.29
Under 3.5 goals Bet365 1.30
Under 12.5 corners Betano 1.42
Derby over 4 corners 1xBet 1.27
Derby or Wrexham (double chance) Bet365 1.36
Derby over 0.5 goals Bet365 1.33
Wrexham over 0.5 goals Bet365 1.30
Wrexham under 6.5 corners 1xBet 1.28
Over 1.5 goals Bet365 1.33
Under 1.5 first half goals William Hill 1.40
Over 0.5 first half goals BetVictor 1.41
Over 6.5 shots on target Betano 1.38
Wrexham or Draw (double chance) William Hill 1.44
Derby under 1.5 goals Bet365 1.50
Over 21.5 total shots (on + off target) Betano 1.45
Under 25.5 total shots (on + off target) Betano 1.45

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.

Since we first priced it

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Draw 3.00 to 3.20 drifting, longer
Home win 2.75 to 2.62 shortening
Under 2.5 goals 1.80 to 1.87 drifting, longer
No draw 1.36 to 1.33 shortening

The best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.

Recent form

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Derby DLL

Last 3, newest first: 0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 2 scored, 4 conceded.

Sat 19 Sep at Burnley 1-1 Drew
Sat 12 Sep v Birmingham 1-2 Lost
Wed 9 Sep v West Brom 0-1 Lost
Wrexham WLDDWL

Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost. 7 scored, 10 conceded.

Sat 19 Sep v Southampton 2-1 Won
Fri 11 Sep at west ham united 0-6 Lost
Tue 8 Sep v Burnley 1-1 Drew
Sat 5 Sep at swansea city 0-0 Drew
Wed 2 Sep at millwall 3-0 Won
Fri 28 Aug v Birmingham City 1-2 Lost

Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.

Derby v Wrexham: the numbers

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DerbyWrexham 22League position14 1-2-5League record, won-drawn-lost2-4-2 7-14Goals for and against9-12 5Points10 0-1-3Home record v away record1-2-1 0.88Scored a game1.13 1.75Conceded a game1.50 com.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@25e23e15xG forcom.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@6e41689f 26%Clean sheets26% 9%Failed to score13% 65%Both teams scored65%

League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.

Likely scorelines

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1-112% 0-110% 1-29% 1-09% 0-28% 2-17%

From each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.

Derby vs Wrexham: FAQs

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Derby vs Wrexham prediction: what is the call?

The call on this game is Over 1.5 at 1.33. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.

What time does Derby vs Wrexham kick off?

Derby vs Wrexham kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 UK time (Championship).

What are the best odds for Derby vs Wrexham?

The best prices across the books we track: Derby 2.75, the draw 3.30, Wrexham 2.62. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.

Who is missing for Derby vs Wrexham?

Derby: no absences found. Wrexham: Thomason: thigh, out to 4 Nov, Cleworth: hamstring, out to 21 Nov, Broadhead: thigh strain, out to 5 Dec.

What form are Derby and Wrexham in?

Derby have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3 (D L L, newest first), scoring 2 and conceding 4. Wrexham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 6 (W L D D W L, newest first), scoring 7 and conceding 10.

Recent singles, graded

Graded in public

Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.

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