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West Ham arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
West Ham take on Portsmouth in the EFL Cup. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. West Ham will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Portsmouth travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickWest Ham to win at @1.53. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
West Ham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Portsmouth create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of 0.0. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. West Ham are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Portsmouth manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 65%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Both sides keep clean sheets regularly. This could be a tight, low-block affair where the first goal is decisive.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | West Ham Win | @1.53 | 58.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 24.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Portsmouth Win | @5.50 | 17.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 65.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.45 | 34.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.57 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes West Ham the favourite with a 58.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: West Ham @ 1.53, Draw @ 4.20, Portsmouth @ 5.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
West Ham vs Portsmouth kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 in the EFL Cup.