Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Prediction

Sunday 11 October 2026, 01:00 Brasileirão Série A

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1070 picks graded in public, misses included. The record

The model's read

Sao Paulo 55% Draw 24% Vitoria 17%

The read

The desk

Sao Paulo's table position and head-to-head record make them deserved favourites, but two defensive and attacking absences take some shine off that read. Vitoria travel with no away win in their last four, so expect goals from the home side and a real chance Vitoria fail to trouble the scoresheet.

The model says

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The call on this game Sao Paulo to win
The best price 1.62William Hill

Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.

Add the call to my slip · 1.62

Who is missing

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Team news · fetched, named, sourced
Sao Paulo

Domingos Duarte: out (ACL rupture, season-ending) · Lucas Moura: out (Achilles tendon) · Nicolas: out (knee, post-surgery recovery) · Aurelio Buta: out (knee injury) · Gustavo Santana: doubtful (ankle sprain)

Vitoria

No absences found.

Checked Thu 8 Oct, 01:45.

One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1

The research

Pro
Markets the desk would leave alone
KILLED
Double Chance: Vitoria or Draw 2.25

This exact combination, away win or draw, has landed in only 3 of the last 10 h2h meetings (30%), below the 44.4% this price needs; Vitoria are winless in 4 away (D L L D) and sit 15th to Sao Paulo's 8th.

The research desk on this game:

“Sao Paulo's table and h2h advantage are real, but shaky home form and two injuries blunt it.”

Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1

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The model v the market

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Best priceImplied
Sao Paulo win 1.62 62%
Draw 3.75 27%
Vitoria win 5.75 17%
Sao Paulo or draw 1.15 87%
Vitoria or draw 2.25 44%
Either side to win, no draw 1.25 80%
Over 2.5 goals 1.95 51%
Both teams to score 1.95 51%

Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.

Model numbers are published only on leagues where our graded record supports them. Here the market's prices stand alone.

The shadow model's number on every market here, labelled as information and never on the record. In FBB Pro.

Every priced market

20 markets
Over 0.5 second half goals William Hill 1.29
Sao Paulo or Vitoria (double chance) William Hill 1.25
Vitoria under 5.5 corners 1xBet 1.20
Over 2.5 cards Betano 1.21
Sao Paulo over 1 goals Marathon Bet 1.22
Under 6.5 cards Betano 1.22
Under 2 second half goals Marathon Bet 1.23
Under 12.5 corners Betano 1.27
Over 1.5 goals Bet365 1.30
Sao Paulo under 2.5 goals Bet365 1.30
Under 3.5 goals Bet365 1.33
Vitoria over 2.5 corners 1xBet 1.29
Sao Paulo over 4.5 corners 1xBet 1.36
Sao Paulo under 7.5 corners 1xBet 1.30
Over 8.5 corners Betano 1.36
Over 0.5 first half goals Bet365 1.40
Under 1.5 first half goals William Hill 1.40
Vitoria under 1 goals Marathon Bet 1.37
Under 10.5 shots on target Betano 1.40
Under 29.5 total shots (on + off target) Betano 1.42

The bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.

Since we first priced it

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Draw 3.60 to 3.50 shortening
Over 2.5 goals 2.00 to 1.95 shortening
Under 2.5 goals 1.83 to 1.87 drifting, longer

The best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.

Recent form

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Sao Paulo LLWLLD

Last 6, newest first: 1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost. 3 scored, 8 conceded.

Thu 8 Oct at cruzeiro 0-2 Lost
Sat 3 Oct v santos 1-2 Lost
Sun 20 Sep v internacional 1-0 Won
Sat 12 Sep at Palmeiras 0-2 Lost
Sun 23 Aug at chapecoense 0-1 Lost
Sun 16 Aug v Coritiba 1-1 Drew
Vitoria WLDWDL

Last 6, newest first: 2 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost. 8 scored, 7 conceded.

Thu 8 Oct v chapecoense sc 4-0 Won
Sun 20 Sep v Cruzeiro 1-3 Lost
Sun 13 Sep at mirassol 2-2 Drew
Tue 8 Sep v Gremio 1-0 Won
Sun 6 Sep v Casa Pia 0-0 Drew
Sun 23 Aug v Bahia 0-2 Lost

Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.

Sao Paulo v Vitoria: the numbers

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Sao PauloVitoria 8League position15 14-9-15League record, won-drawn-lost11-12-15 43-47Goals for and against35-52 51Points45 10-4-5Home record v away record2-6-11 1.10Scored a game0.90 1.20Conceded a game1.40 com.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@520cf97dxG forcom.footballodds.service.XgService$TeamXg@6461f771 32%Clean sheets32% 37%Failed to score40% 58%Both teams scored15% 5%Over 2.5 goals5%

League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.

Sao Paulo v Vitoria: head to head

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Sao Paulo won 7 0 draws Vitoria won 3
2.3 goals a game 3/10 both scored 4/10 over 2.5
11 Apr 2026 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 2-0
7 Dec 2025 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 1-0
9 Aug 2025 Sao Paulo v Vitoria 2-0
25 Aug 2024 Sao Paulo v Vitoria 2-1
5 May 2024 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 1-3
26 Oct 2018 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 0-1
13 Jun 2018 Sao Paulo v Vitoria 3-0
17 Sep 2017 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 1-2
8 Jun 2017 Sao Paulo v Vitoria 2-0
25 Sep 2016 Vitoria v Sao Paulo 2-0

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: FAQs

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Sao Paulo vs Vitoria prediction: what is the call?

The call on this game is Sao Paulo to win at 1.62. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.

What time does Sao Paulo vs Vitoria kick off?

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 01:00 UK time (Brasileirão Série A).

What are the best odds for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

The best prices across the books we track: Sao Paulo 1.62, the draw 3.75, Vitoria 5.75. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.

Who is missing for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

Sao Paulo: Domingos Duarte: out (ACL rupture, season-ending), Lucas Moura: out (Achilles tendon), Nicolas: out (knee, post-surgery recovery), Aurelio Buta: out (knee injury), Gustavo Santana: doubtful (ankle sprain). Vitoria: no absences found.

What form are Sao Paulo and Vitoria in?

Sao Paulo have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 6 (L L W L L D, newest first), scoring 3 and conceding 8. Vitoria have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 6 (W L D W D L, newest first), scoring 8 and conceding 7.

What is the head to head between Sao Paulo and Vitoria?

In their last 10 meetings on our record, Sao Paulo won 7, Vitoria won 3 and 0 were drawn. The most recent, 11 Apr 2026, finished Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo.

Recent singles, graded

Graded in public

Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.

Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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