Who is favourite to win Derby vs Swansea?

Our model rates Swansea as the favourite with a 37.5% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Derby 35.5%, draw 25.0%, Swansea 37.5%.

Where can I watch Derby vs Swansea?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Derby vs Swansea?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 45.2% probability and Under 2.5 goals 54.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 829 picks Championship Saturday 29 August 2026, 12:30

Derby vs Swansea Predictions & Odds

D Derby 35.5% @2.25

VS Draw 25.0%

S Swansea 37.5% @3.00

Our model call Leans Swansea, but only just A 38% call, draw at 25%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Derby 36% 2.25 Draw 25% 3.25 Swansea 38% 3.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 55% 1.83 Over 2.5 45% 2.10 Over 1.5 @1.33

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 1.91 Yes 55% 1.80

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

70% verified · logged before kick-off

Want our pick every time Derby play?

Get the model's verified verdict on Derby (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.

03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Derby Win	35.5%	47.2%	12 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	45.2%	50.0%	5 pts under
Both Teams to Score	54.7%	57.1%	2 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 65% of Derby home games

01The read

Derby Host Swansea: Our Prediction

36% against 38%: the model can barely split Derby and Swansea.

Swansea slight edge (38%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Derby (16th, 1 pts) host Swansea (8th, 4 pts) in the Championship. Both sides will be targeting three points here.

Our verdict

Marginal call: Swansea at just 38%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Swansea, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Derby's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

Swansea are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Derby (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Derby create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Swansea create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Derby are scoring 1.5 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Swansea manage 1.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 45%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%.

Both teams score in 65% of Derby's home games and 48% of Swansea's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Swansea prefer to keep things tight (0.5 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Derby against this setup.

In the last 10 meetings: Derby have won 4, Swansea 4, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.2 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Derby 2-0 Swansea, Swansea 1-2 Derby, Swansea 1-0 Derby.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Derby HT 2.70
Draw HT 2.20
Swansea HT 3.50

Team Intel

📊 Derby · xG

For: 1.44/g Against: 1.37/g

📊 Swansea · xG

For: 1.40/g Against: 1.50/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Derby vs Swansea Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Derby Win	@2.25	35.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.25	25.0%	William Hill
Match Result	Swansea Win	@3.00	37.5%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.80	54.7%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.91	45.3%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.10	45.2%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.83	54.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.33	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.32	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Derby

1 unbeaten

Last 5 DLLLW

At home DLLW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 9%

Swansea

2 unbeaten

Last 5 DWLWD

On the road WDW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 54% FTS 22%

Derby vs Swansea Team Stats

Derby County FC

Position 16

Played 2

Record 0W-1D-1L

Goals F/A 3/4

Avg Goals Scored 1.50

Points 1

Overall Form DLLLW

Home Form DLLW

Home Record 0W-1D-0L

Swansea City AFC

Position 8

Played 2

Record 1W-1D-0L

Goals F/A 2/1

Avg Goals Scored 1.00

Points 4

Overall Form DWLWD

Away Form WDW

Away Record 1W-0D-0L

Derby vs Swansea Head to Head

4 Home Wins 2 Draws 4 Away Wins

2.2 Avg Goals

5/10 BTTS

5/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-14 Derby 2-0 Swansea

2025-11-25 Derby 2-1 Swansea

2025-04-05 Derby 0-1 Swansea

2024-11-27 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2022-04-09 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2021-10-02 Derby 0-0 Swansea

2021-05-01 Derby 1-2 Swansea

2020-12-16 Derby 2-0 Swansea

2020-02-08 Derby 3-2 Swansea

2019-08-10 Derby 0-0 Swansea

Full Derby vs Swansea head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 12.3%

1-1 12.3%

0-2 9.2%

1-2 9.2%

0-0 8.2%

1-0 8.2%

2-1 6.2%

0-3 4.6%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Under 3.5 goals Smart 82% @1.32 Betano
Over 7.5 corners Smart 81% @1.27 Betano
Patrick Agyemang 1+ shots on target 74% @1.36 Bet365
Zan Vipotnik 1+ shots on target 71% @1.40 Bet365

Combined 3.19 · £5 returns £15.96

Market singles 12 priced markets

Patrick Agyemang 2+ shots 83% @1.20 Bet365
Derby under 2 goals 83% @1.20 Marathon Bet
Under 2 second half goals 83% @1.21 Marathon Bet
Under 3.5 goals 82% @1.32 Betano
Over 0.5 second half goals 82% @1.29 William Hill
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.27 Betano
Derby over 0.5 goals 81% @1.28 Bet365
Derby or Swansea (double chance) 80% @1.36 Bet365
Under 12.5 corners 80% @1.25 Unibet
Swansea over 2.5 corners 79% @1.27 Unibet
Over 1.5 goals 78% @1.35 BetVictor
Carlton Morris 2+ shots 78% @1.28 Bet365

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Derby v Swansea builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.32
2 Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.32

@1.75 £10 returns £17.47

View full breakdown

Follow this match

Get our verified pick by email every time these teams play. Free, one-click unsubscribe.

More Championship Wolves v Stoke City Sat 12:30 Middlesbrough v West Brom Sat 12:30 Norwich v Burnley Sat 15:00 Watford v West Ham Sat 15:00 All fixtures this week ›

The record

70%

verified hit rate across 829 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

See every pick ›

Derby vs Swansea: FAQs

Who will win Derby vs Swansea?

Our model makes Swansea the favourite with a 37.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Derby vs Swansea?

Best available odds: Derby @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.25, Swansea @ 3.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Derby vs Swansea kick off?

Derby vs Swansea kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 54.7% probability.

Derby vs Swansea prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Swansea to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.