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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 35.6% | 49.5% | 14 pts under |
| Stoke City Win | 34.4% | 44.4% | 10 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Stoke City and Swansea City meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Neck and neck in the Championship standings. Stoke City (1st, 0 pts) host Swansea City (1st, 0 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Stoke City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Swansea City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Swansea City edge it at 38% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Swansea City create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Stoke City average 0.5 goals per game and Swansea City manage 1.7. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 61% of Stoke City's home games and 48% of Swansea City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Matches involving Stoke City always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Swansea City will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
This has title race implications written all over it. Stoke City sit 1st while Swansea City are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (12%) and 0-2 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City Win | @2.40 | 34.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 27.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Swansea City Win | @2.90 | 37.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 35.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.67 | 64.4% | William Hill |
Our model makes Swansea City the favourite with a 37.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Stoke City @ 2.40, Draw @ 3.10, Swansea City @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Stoke City vs Swansea City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Swansea City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.