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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 36.4% | 51.8% | 15 pts under |
| Draw | 27.8% | 33.3% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Charlton Athletic arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
There's barely anything between these two. Charlton Athletic (1st, 0 pts) and Derby County (1st, 0 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Charlton Athletic will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Derby County travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Charlton Athletic at 46%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Our model spots value here: Charlton Athletic to win at @2.50 (our model: 46%, bookmakers imply: 40%). A 6% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Charlton Athletic average 1.1 goals per game and Derby County manage 1.6. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 52% of Charlton Athletic's home games and 65% of Derby County's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Charlton Athletic at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Derby County face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Charlton Athletic sit 1st while Derby County are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (7%) and 2-0 (5%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Charlton Athletic Win | @2.50 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Derby County Win | @2.80 | 38.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.05 | 36.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.70 | 63.6% | William Hill |
Our model makes Charlton Athletic the favourite with a 46.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Charlton Athletic @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.00, Derby County @ 2.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Charlton Athletic vs Derby County kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Charlton Athletic to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.