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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45.5% | 62.5% | 17 pts under |
| Middlesbrough Win | 64.6% | 80.0% | 15 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Middlesbrough welcome Lincoln City.
There's barely anything between these two. Middlesbrough (1st, 0 pts) and Lincoln City (1st, 0 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Middlesbrough will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Lincoln City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards Middlesbrough (65%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Lincoln City have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our PickMiddlesbrough to win at @1.30. Model probability 65% vs implied 77%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Middlesbrough are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Lincoln City manage 2.1 (2.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 46%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 48% of Middlesbrough's home games and 39% of Lincoln City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Matches involving Middlesbrough always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Lincoln City will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
This has title race implications written all over it. Middlesbrough sit 1st while Lincoln City are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Lincoln City have goals in them (2.1 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 1-0 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Middlesbrough Win | @1.30 | 64.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.00 | 19.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Lincoln City Win | @8.50 | 16.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 45.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 54.5% | William Hill |
Our model makes Middlesbrough the favourite with a 64.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Middlesbrough @ 1.30, Draw @ 5.00, Lincoln City @ 8.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Middlesbrough vs Lincoln City kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Middlesbrough to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.