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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage Win | 41.1% | 33.3% | 8 pts over |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39.0% | 45.5% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Burton Albion know what's at stake, and so do Stevenage.
A League One fixture between Burton Albion and Stevenage. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burton Albion will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Stevenage travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Stevenage at just 41%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Stevenage, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our model spots value here: Stevenage to win at @3.10 (our model: 41%, bookmakers imply: 32%). A 9% edge over the market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burton Albion average 1.0 goals per game and Stevenage manage 0.9. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 39% of Burton Albion's home games and 52% of Stevenage's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Burton Albion do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burton Albion Win | @2.30 | 39.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 28.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Stevenage Win | @3.10 | 41.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.30 | 39.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.57 | 61.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Stevenage the favourite with a 41.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Burton Albion @ 2.30, Draw @ 3.00, Stevenage @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Stevenage to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.