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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford City Win | 49.9% | 57.8% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.0% | 55.6% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Bradford City welcome Peterborough United.
A League One fixture between Bradford City and Peterborough United. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Bradford City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Peterborough United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Bradford City at just 50%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Bradford City, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Bradford City average 1.0 goals per game and Peterborough United manage 0.9. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it only 51% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 52% of Bradford City's home games and 61% of Peterborough United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bradford City Win | @1.83 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 25.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Peterborough United Win | @4.20 | 24.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.80 | 49.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Bradford City the favourite with a 49.9% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Bradford City @ 1.83, Draw @ 3.30, Peterborough United @ 4.20. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Bradford City vs Peterborough United kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Bradford City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.