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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United Win | 30.9% | 42.0% | 11 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41.2% | 48.1% | 7 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Cambridge United and Wigan Athletic meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Cambridge United take on Wigan Athletic in the League One. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cambridge United will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wigan Athletic travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Wigan Athletic at 40%, but the draw sits at 29%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. Cambridge United at @2.50 (31%) and Wigan Athletic at @2.70 (40%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.00 (29%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 41%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cambridge United Win | @2.50 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 29.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wigan Athletic Win | @2.70 | 40.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.15 | 41.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.65 | 58.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Wigan Athletic the favourite with a 40.1% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Cambridge United @ 2.50, Draw @ 3.00, Wigan Athletic @ 2.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cambridge United vs Wigan Athletic kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Wigan Athletic to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.