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San Jose Earthquakes arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
San Jose Earthquakes welcome St. Louis City in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. San Jose Earthquakes will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while St. Louis City travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 68% vs implied 67%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. St. Louis City create 2.0 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of +0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. San Jose Earthquakes are scoring 1.8 a game (2.2 of those at home) and St. Louis City manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 68%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game and St. Louis City 2.0. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
San Jose Earthquakes are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at St. Louis City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @1.67 | 50.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 21.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | St. Louis City Win | @4.00 | 26.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.53 | 56.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.40 | 44.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 67.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.57 | 32.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.67 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite with a 50.8% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: San Jose Earthquakes @ 1.67, Draw @ 4.20, St. Louis City @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.