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All eyes on Gremio as Sao Paulo travel to face Gremio.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Gremio (9th, 49 pts) host Sao Paulo (8th, 51 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Gremio will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Sao Paulo travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Gremio will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D5 L5 at home). Sao Paulo's away record reads W4 D5 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Sao Paulo could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.1 goals a game against chance quality worth only 0.9. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Gremio create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Sao Paulo create 0.9 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.9. The underlying numbers clearly favour Gremio. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Sao Paulo are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.1 goals vs chance quality of 0.9). Both runs could cool off at once.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Gremio average 1.2 goals per game and Sao Paulo manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @2.38 | 33.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 26.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sao Paulo Win | @2.90 | 38.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 48.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.85 | 51.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.08 | 47.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.79 | 52.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Sao Paulo the favourite with a 38.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Gremio @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.00, Sao Paulo @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Gremio vs Sao Paulo kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.