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Sao Paulo know what's at stake, and so do Coritiba.
Sao Paulo welcome Coritiba in the Brasileirão Série A. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sao Paulo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Coritiba travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals per game and Coritiba manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 47% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sao Paulo Win | @1.67 | 54.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Coritiba Win | @5.00 | 16.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 43.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.75 | 56.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.82 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.31 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Sao Paulo the favourite with a 54.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sao Paulo @ 1.67, Draw @ 3.40, Coritiba @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.