Mirassol vs Flamengo Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Mirassol welcome Flamengo.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) host Flamengo (1st, 79 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Nathan Fogaça has been Mirassol's spearhead, with 2 goals and 0 assists in 10 appearances, averaging 1.00 shots on target per game. Pedro has been Flamengo's main threat, with 12 goals and 4 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 1.20 shots on target per game.
Mirassol will be looking to make home advantage count (W12 D7 L0 at home). Flamengo's away record reads W9 D5 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Mirassol's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. The gap in chance quality is clear: Flamengo come out at +1.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Mirassol create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Flamengo create 2.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. On the quality of chances, Flamengo look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Mirassol average 1.7 goals per game and Flamengo manage 2.1. Combined that's just 3.8. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Mirassol and Flamengo together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Matches involving Mirassol always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Flamengo will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.
A result here could reshape the title picture. Flamengo (1st) visit Mirassol (4th) knowing anything less than a win could see them slip.
Flamengo are similarly well-balanced. 2.1 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 0-1 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Flamengo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Mirassol vs Flamengo kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.