AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid Prediction
Wednesday 4 November 2026, 17:45 Champions League1235 picks graded in public, misses included. The record
The model's read
AEK Athens FC 15%
Draw 20%
Real Madrid 66%
The read
The deskReal Madrid arrive on a five-game winning run while AEK have won only two of their last five at home, and Athens' goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha is out with a wrist injury. Madrid are missing Vinicius, Rodrygo, Asencio and Valverde, but the shape of this game still points to goals at both ends rather than a shutout.
The model says
Always freeEvery call is logged before kick-off and graded in public. The whole record is on the track record, misses included.
Who is missing
Always freeAEK Athens FCThomas Strakosha: out, wrist injury
Real MadridVinicius Junior: suspended, due back 8 November 2026 · Rodrygo: out, cruciate ligament, into late December 2026 · Raul Asencio: out, leg injury, into early January 2027 · Federico Valverde: out, hamstring injury, about 1-2 weeks
Checked Sun 1 Nov, 00:39.
One game passed the rule today. It is in Pro, seven days for £1
The research
ProThe trap: Vinicius suspended and Rodrygo out look like reasons Madrid's attack goes quiet. AEK's own record argues otherwise, 2 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 at home, now without keeper Strakosha (wrist), against a Madrid side on a 5-game winning run including 3 wins in their last 5 away. Our model gives Under 2.5 only 26%.
“Real Madrid's scoring run and AEK's leaky home defence point to goals over a Madrid win”
Every market graded strong, medium or killed, and the desk's own word on the model's call, with the reason written down. In FBB Pro, on this game and every other. Seven days for £1
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The model v the market
Always free| Match model | Best price | Implied | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC win | 15% | 11.00 | 9% |
| Draw | 20% | 7.00 | 14% |
| Real Madrid win | 66% | 1.25 | 80% |
| AEK Athens FC or draw | 31% | 4.00 | 25% |
| Real Madrid or draw | 1.07 | 93% | |
| Either side to win, no draw | 1.12 | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 1.31 | 76% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.67 | 60% |
Best price across the books we track, the same price as the list below, where the book is named.
The singles' third check uses our goals model, a separate number.
Every priced market
20 marketsThe bookmakers' best prices on every market we track for this game, corners, cards and shots included. Prices are theirs, with their margin in; our own number appears only where the model has a graded record. Tap any to add it to your slip.
Since we first priced it
Always freeThe best price when we first priced this game, then the best price now. Drifting means the price got longer, shortening means shorter.
Recent form
Always freeAEK Athens FC
LLWWD
Last 5, newest first: 2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost. 7 scored, 8 conceded.
at Manchester City
1-5
Lost
at Shakhtar Donetsk
1-3
Lost
v LASK Linz
1-0
Won
v Levski Sofia
4-0
Won
at Levski Sofia
0-0
Drew
Real Madrid
WWWWWW
Last 6, newest first: 6 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost. 18 scored, 6 conceded.
at Racing Santander
3-0
Won
at Barcelona
2-1
Won
v RB Leipzig
4-1
Won
v Sevilla
4-1
Won
at AS Roma
4-3
Won
v Villarreal
1-0
Won
Each side's last finished games in all competitions, their goals first. At home reads v, away reads at.
AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid: the numbers
Always freeAEK Athens FCReal Madrid
-League position4
-League record, won-drawn-lost3-0-0
0-0Goals for and against10-5
0Points9
-Home record v away record1-0-0
1.40Scored a game3.33
1.60Conceded a game1.67
60%Clean sheets37%
20%Failed to score11%
40%Both teams scored55%
League record and goals from this season's table where the feed carries it; the rates are the share of each side's games in the data we hold.
AEK Athens FC v Real Madrid: head to head
Always freeA first meeting: AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid have not played each other in the record we hold.
Likely scorelines
Always freeFrom each side's goals scored and conceded a game, the home side's goals first. Information, not a call.
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid: FAQs
Always freeAEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid prediction: what is the call?
The call on this game is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.31. Every call is logged before kick-off and graded in public, misses included.
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 17:45 UK time (Champions League).
What are the best odds for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
The best prices across the books we track: AEK Athens FC 11.00, the draw 7.00, Real Madrid 1.25. Prices move; the table on this page is the latest.
Who is missing for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
AEK Athens FC: Thomas Strakosha: out, wrist injury. Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior: suspended, due back 8 November 2026, Rodrygo: out, cruciate ligament, into late December 2026, Raul Asencio: out, leg injury, into early January 2027, Federico Valverde: out, hamstring injury, about 1-2 weeks.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid in?
AEK Athens FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 (L L W W D, newest first), scoring 7 and conceding 8. Real Madrid have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 6 (W W W W W W, newest first), scoring 18 and conceding 6.
Recent singles, graded
Graded in public-
Mon 2 Nov
Pro single
Sonderjyske v FC Copenhagen
1.53
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sun 1 Nov
Pro single
Groningen v Sparta Rotterdam
1.44
Over 2.5 goals (2-3) Landed
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
Sampdoria v Virtus Entella
1.36
Over 1.5 goals (2-0) Landed
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
Peterborough v Luton
1.41
Over 2.5 goals (0-2) Lost
-
Sat 31 Oct
Pro single
FC Augsburg v SC Freiburg
1.50
Over 2.5 goals (1-2) Landed
Every single is locked before kick-off, one unit each, and graded whatever happens.
The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.