Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
J
J. Calleri
1+ Shots on Target
56% (model)
J. Calleri averages 0.75 SoT/match (20 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
L
Lucas Barbosa
1+ Shots on Target
56% (model)
Lucas Barbosa averages 0.90 SoT/match (20 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
L
Luciano
1+ Shots on Target
52% (model)
Luciano averages 0.67 SoT/match (18 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
E
E. Díaz
To Be Carded
45% (model)
E. Díaz (Defender) on 0.54 yellows/match (13 apps), pos-mult 1.10
F
Ferreira
1+ Shots on Target
44% (model)
Ferreira averages 0.53 SoT/match (17 apps), home vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
The model makes Sao Paulo 46% favourites here. RB Bragantino carry the 29% upset.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Sao Paulo (8th, 51 pts) host RB Bragantino (10th, 48 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
J. Calleri has been Sao Paulo's spearhead, with 7 goals and 1 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.75 shots on target per game. Lucas Barbosa has been RB Bragantino's main threat, with 4 goals and 2 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots on target per game.
Key men
J
J. Calleri
Sao Paulo · Attacker
7 goals · 1 assist in 20 apps
0.8 shots on target a game
L
Lucas Barbosa
RB Bragantino · Attacker
4 goals · 2 assists in 20 apps
0.9 shots on target a game
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 73% of Sao Paulo's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Sao Paulo have gone D-L-D-D-L, RB Bragantino's D-D-D-D-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve. One thing to keep in mind about Sao Paulo. They're scoring 1.1 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 0.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.3), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sao Paulo create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them -0.9 a game on the balance. RB Bragantino create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, RB Bragantino look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Sao Paulo are scoring 1.1 goals a game off chances worth just 0.9. That's +0.3 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off.
Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals per game and RB Bragantino manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Sao Paulo HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.05
-
RB Bragantino HT
3.90
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Sao Paulo · xG
For: 0.87/g
Against: 1.78/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.33/g, possibly running hot
📊 RB Bragantino · xG
For: 1.19/g
Against: 1.15/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sao Paulo Win |
@2.10
|
45.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.00
|
25.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
RB Bragantino Win |
@3.40
|
29.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.95
|
43.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.75
|
56.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.25
|
39.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.67
|
61.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.24
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Team Stats
Sao Paulo
Position
8
Played
38
Record
14W-9D-15L
Goals F/A
43/47
Avg Goals Scored
1.10
Points
51
Overall Form
DLDDL
Home Form
DDLDD
Home Record
10W-4D-5L
RB Bragantino
Position
10
Played
38
Record
14W-6D-18L
Goals F/A
45/57
Avg Goals Scored
1.20
Points
48
Overall Form
DDDDL
Away Form
DDLLW
Away Record
5W-2D-12L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
10.7%
2-0
6.9%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 11 priced markets
-
Sao Paulo under 2 goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Sao Paulo or Draw (double chance)
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Sao Paulo over 0.5 goals
80%
@1.29
Betano
-
RB Bragantino under 1.5 goals
80%
@1.30
1xBet
-
Under 3 goals
79%
@1.34
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
78%
@1.33
888Sport
-
Sao Paulo or RB Bragantino (double chance)
78%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
77%
@1.36
10Bet
-
Over 1.5 goals
74%
@1.44
Betano
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
71%
@1.53
Betano
-
RB Bragantino over 0.5 goals
68%
@1.52
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →