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Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
RB Bragantino 52%, the draw 24%, Gremio 22%. That's the shape of this one.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. RB Bragantino (10th, 48 pts) host Gremio (9th, 49 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
Lucas Barbosa has been RB Bragantino's spearhead, with 4 goals and 2 assists in 20 appearances, averaging 0.90 shots on target per game. Carlos Vinícius has been Gremio's main threat, with 10 goals and 1 assists in 21 appearances, averaging 1.05 shots on target per game.
RB Bragantino will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D4 L6 at home). Gremio's away record reads W4 D5 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
RB Bragantino create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Gremio create 1.7 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Gremio look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
RB Bragantino average 1.2 goals per game and Gremio manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it 52% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | RB Bragantino Win | @1.73 | 52.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @4.33 | 22.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 52.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.37 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.18 · £5 returns £15.91
Our model makes RB Bragantino the favourite with a 52.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: RB Bragantino @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.50, Gremio @ 4.33. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
RB Bragantino vs Gremio kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.