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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.6% | 32.8% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43.3% | 46.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Sevilla and Rayo Vallecano meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Sevilla (15th, 43 pts) host Rayo Vallecano (8th, 50 pts) in the La Liga. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sevilla will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Rayo Vallecano travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Sevilla at just 46%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Sevilla, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Sevilla's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sevilla create chances worth 0.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Rayo Vallecano create 1.4 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Rayo Vallecano look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sevilla average 1.2 goals per game and Rayo Vallecano manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 43% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
Both teams score in 58% of Sevilla's home games and 37% of Rayo Vallecano's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (10%) and 2-0 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sevilla Win | @2.25 | 45.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 26.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Rayo Vallecano Win | @3.25 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.25 | 43.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.62 | 56.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Sevilla the favourite with a 45.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sevilla @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.10, Rayo Vallecano @ 3.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sevilla vs Rayo Vallecano kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 20:30 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.6% probability.
Our top prediction is Sevilla to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.