03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.7% |
35.6% |
8 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
44.5% |
40.0% |
4 pts over
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
36.0% |
33.6% |
2 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Getafe Host Racing Santander: Our Prediction
Getafe have failed to score in 45% of their games, and now the model gives Racing Santander a 25% chance on the road.
Getafe slight edge (47%) | Lower-scoring game likely (64%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Getafe at @1.91 for this La Liga tie, with Racing Santander out at @4.75.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Getafe at just 47%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Getafe, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Getafe fail to score in 45% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
▸ Form & goals
Getafe average 0.8 goals per game and Racing Santander manage 0.0. Combined that's just 0.8. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
▸ Team news & context
Racing Santander prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Getafe against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Getafe but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.18 , which pays out if Getafe win or draw, covers 75% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (17%) and 2-0 (4%).
First Half Result
-
Getafe HT
2.50
-
Draw HT
1.91
-
Racing Santander HT
5.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Getafe · xG
For: 0.91/g
Against: 1.19/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Getafe vs Racing Santander Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Getafe Win |
@1.91
|
47.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@2.90
|
27.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Racing Santander Win |
@4.75
|
25.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.50
|
44.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.50
|
55.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@3.20
|
36.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.38
|
64.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.67
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@2.27
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@6.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.12
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Getafe vs Racing Santander Team Stats
Getafe CF
Position
7
Played
38
Record
15W-6D-17L
Goals F/A
32/38
Avg Goals Scored
0.84
Points
51
Overall Form
WLWDL
Home Form
WWLL
Racing Santander
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
16.7%
2-0
3.5%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Racing Santander over 1.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
83%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 1 goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Under 10.5 corners
83%
@1.32
Betano
-
Racing Santander under 1 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Over 6.5 corners
81%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Getafe under 6.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Racing Santander under 4.5 corners
78%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Getafe or Racing Santander (double chance)
78%
@1.41
1xBet
-
Under 2.5 goals
76%
@1.38
10Bet
-
Getafe over 0.5 goals
76%
@1.36
Betano
-
Under 1.5 second half goals
76%
@1.36
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →