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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40.1% | 55.9% | 16 pts under |
| Portsmouth Win | 40.7% | 49.5% | 9 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Portsmouth arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
There's barely anything between these two. Portsmouth (1st, 0 pts) and Queens Park Rangers (1st, 0 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Portsmouth will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Queens Park Rangers travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Portsmouth at just 41%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Portsmouth, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The gap in chance quality is clear: Portsmouth come out at +0.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.8. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Portsmouth create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Queens Park Rangers create 1.0 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Portsmouth. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for Portsmouth: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.0 a game, well below their 1.3 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Portsmouth average 1.6 goals per game and Queens Park Rangers manage 0.7. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 40% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 48% of Portsmouth's home games and 41% of Queens Park Rangers's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Portsmouth at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Queens Park Rangers face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Portsmouth sit 1st while Queens Park Rangers are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (12%) and 1-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Portsmouth Win | @2.15 | 40.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 24.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Queens Park Rangers Win | @3.10 | 34.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 40.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 59.9% | William Hill |
Our model makes Portsmouth the favourite with a 40.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Portsmouth @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.25, Queens Park Rangers @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Portsmouth vs Queens Park Rangers kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Portsmouth to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.